May 15th, 2014: Tomorrow is going to be the judgement day! Over the last few months, we are seeing the fierce political battle played in the largest democracy in the world. Surely, how political it was is a matter of debate. A large portion of the discourse was devoid of content, but was filled with mud. We Indian know what it was, and had accepted well enough. This is also the first national election with increasing amount of media glitz in all possible forms, including social, electronic and print. It is needless to say that Narendra Modi led BJP made a 'shock and awe' campaign that no one could have imagined initially, and they had completely outmaneuvered Congress and other political parties.
We are just around 12 hours away to know what is going to be the outcome. It is highly predicted (still a probability) that BJP led NDA is going to form the Govt and the present Gujrat chief minister Narendra Modi is going to sail the ship for next few years. That is just the outcome of the current election. But, one thing for sure is that Indian politics has taken a turn that was initially started in early nineties, and took the political shape by Bajpayee led NDA Govt from 1998 to 2004. The turn will complete a circle if Modi forms the new Govt.
Modi led NDA Govt will broadly represent what is typically done by right wing political parties in other major democracies, say Republicans in USA. They will be strongly in favor of market oriented corporate style Govt, where 'Swadeshi' economy would mean creating jobs at home, not necessarily wearing khadi and making khadi only. They usually have strong government with good governance. Modi had successfully made this shift, and I am sure that at some point, he will even opt for FDI in retail that has been strongly opposed by current BJP leaders at the center. Over the years, BJP has also shifted their ideology from religious nationalism to cultural nationalism. This suits them politically much better in this constantly changing internet era! How that relation holds with the core RSS or Bajrang Dal is something to watch out for. On the other hand, BJP will also represent many social conservativeness. The one that has come in the forefront in recent time is the party's view on homosexuality. I do not see any broad departure from these points in longer run. During the time of Bajpayee, India was changing after the economic liberalization, and it was difficult to judge where BJP stood except their strong religious inclination just after the wake of Babri Masjid incident.
On the other hand, Congress is going to stand more on the socialistic liberal side. Even though the Congress must be credited for the economic liberalization in 1991, they were never sure how much they should go with it. They always tried the balancing act, and very recently, it has been articulated further by Rahul Gandhi. If the fate of the Congress party remains tied with the Gandhi dynasty, it seems to be the long term path. Someone will call it the legacy (or burden) of Nehru! This would be more so if the predicted Modi led government takes the above mentioned path. The congress will not have any other political space than moving more towards the market based socialism. This is going to be more like what Democrats are doing in USA. Still, Congress is going to face a big ideological struggle to find a common thread in keeping them nationally relevant. It is absolutely necessary for them to define properly what the party stands for. Even though Rahul Gandhi had miserably failed in electoral sense, he has been able to sketch some outlines. In the quickly changing India, people would be in constant search for an identity, and the major national political parties must define broadly what are they based on.
Until this point, the story is pretty similar to any major democracy in the World. If the case for India is the same, it would have been boring. The twist comes from the regional parties, sometimes called "third front" where the 'first' and the 'second' being alternated between BJP led NDA and Congress led UPA. On an average, this third front regional parties all together hold 1/3 of the political power in India. The only issue is that the force is not cohesive, and more importantly without any well defined national view. Except for the communist left parties, all regional parties are essentially open to all kinds of power as long as the regional equations are intact. This makes the political situation volatile to a certain extent, and we may see that drama tomorrow onwards.
In this context, many people have argued against the regional parties for the shake of political stability in the center. They are failing to understand the inherent nature of India that is completely different from any other country in the world. We are bound to have multiple parties as it is very difficult to capture the imagination of all regions by a couple of national parties only. This could have been true after independence, but no longer! Here comes the lesson: The national parties must learn how to steer the alliances as it was first successfully shown between 1998 and 2004 by Bajpayee, and subsequently by Manmohon Singh led UPA governments. At the same time, the regional parties also must clear the air with their views on national agendas.
At this juncture, whoever forms the Govt, it is important that they are connected with the people - also via social media! Failing to do so, failing to see the dreams in people's eyes would be a real set-back! Modi has successfully been able to sell this dream recently. As a countryman, I would like to see India as a prosperous country where the basic necessities (food, health and education) of all the people are fulfilled. If a Govt can do that, the same Govt can leave other issues to be solved by the people themselves. I am confident that India can do it.
Postscript: Let's follow politics so that we can choose a political party to vote after five years. But let's not follow a party's politics so that we can stamp after five years!
